Researched and written by SHAWN CUMBERBATCH
BARBADOS’ FUEL IMPORT BILL was lower in the first nine months of the year as global oil prices stayed low in comparison to previous years.
The Central Bank of Barbados’ January to September economic review said the fuel import bill was an estimated $262.5 million at the end of September, down from an estimated $732.5 million in the same period last year.
Central Bank Governor Dr Kevin Greenidge said that increased oil production by OPEC+ members signaled “potential oil price decreases for the remainder of the year and into early 2026, which could favourably influence domestic inflation”.
“However, persistent geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions remain a significant downside risk,” he noted.
In its annual report for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, before it transitioned to the Barbados National Energy Company Limited, the Barbados National Oil Company Limited said that world market oil prices on average for the fiscal period April 2024 to March 2025 “were five per cent lower than the previous period”.
The highest price reached during the year under review was US$91.17, compared to the previous year’s peak of US$96.55 per barrel. Barbados continued to import a significant amount of petroleum products during the year, the oil company reported. “During the year 2025, 775 310 barrels of gasoline, 533 199 barrels of diesel, 7 429 206 gallons of liquefied natural gas and 1 105 488 barrels of fuel oil portfolios were sourced, imported and supplied to customers at optimum pricing, while maintaining the highest quality standards,” it stated. “During the fiscal period April 2024 to March 2025, BNOCL’s imports of gasoline increased by 6.8 per cent and there was an increase for diesel of 15.4 per cent compared to the previous year. In addition, the company’s heavy fuel oil import quantities increased by one per cent.”
In a recent analysis, World Bank senior energy economist Paolo Agnolucci and research analyst Nikita Makarenko, said that global oil prices rose by five per cent toward the end of October after new United States sanctions were announced on Russian oil companies, with Brent crude closing at about US$65 per barrel on October 29. “Throughout 2025, oil prices declined due to ongoing trade policy tensions and concerns over excess supply, with occasional short-term increases in response to geopolitical events,” they said.
“The decline in Brent contributed to the Urals price falling below US$60 per barrel – the price cap in place since February 2025 – before a lower cap of US$47.6 per barrel was introduced in September.”
Agnolucci and Makarenko said the combination of surging production and sluggish consumption growth “is generating a global oil glut”, which had ramifications for oil prices.
“Brent oil prices are projected to average US$68 per barrel in 2025, decline to US$60 per barrel in 2026, and then rise to US$65 per barrel as market conditions stabilise,” the World Bank experts stated.
The United States Energy Information Administration said three weeks ago in a new short term energy outlook that it expected global oil inventories to “continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months”.
Its forecast was “the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of US$54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and average US$55 per barrel for all of next year”.